John N
There’s a slightly different look to the grid this weekend in Mexico and tricky conditions for the drivers to tackle, even if it remains dry and sunny, due to the altitude. So here are some of the different options that are available to the teams on race day in Mexico City.
What’s the quickest strategy?
In what is often the recipe for an exciting strategic race, two options stand out that are closely matched in terms of time and differing numbers of pit stops. But the quickest is the one available to the top three teams, which is a two-stop strategy.
The key to this strategy is having two sets of medium tires available – something Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari, Williams, and Haas all have – allowing them to run two stints on this compound as it’s deemed the best race tire.
A run of over 800 meters from pole position to the braking zone for Turn 1 makes the launch of the line particularly crucial and is likely to see many of the above teams opting for the soft compound to try and either protect their position or gain places.
The first pit window would be between Lap 16 and Lap 22, switching to mediums until between Lap 42 and 48, and then another set of mediums to the end of the race.
Crucial to this strategy is how the soft tires hold up in the first stint, with some pace management needed to protect them from too much wear. Graining hasn’t been a significant issue but could be a factor if there’s cloud cover that makes track temperatures lower, but at the same time, that still makes the soft the better tire to be on for warm-up reasons.
A different option for the top 10
For those without two sets of mediums available – Valtteri Bottas in seventh being the highest-place driver – a one-stopper is not much slower than the two-stop above.
The downside is starting on the mediums, giving up a bit of performance off the line compared to the soft, but then being able to run a much longer opening stint and not have to worry about pitting early into traffic.
The medium tire has been consistent and close to a second per lap quicker than the hard compound (though that delta often reduces in race trim when drivers aren’t pushing flat out at all times), so the aim will be the first stint of at least 28 laps.
If the pit stop comes before Lap 35, the hard compound is the more likely option for the second part of the race, especially for teams that can switch the tire on. The hard is still a consistent tire but does lack performance in the middle sector with high-speed changes of direction and can be tough to warm up.
If a driver can extend that first stint to Lap 40 on the medium tire, then doing the latter part of the race on the softs is possible. That would provide a significant pace advantage over the hard compound in the same stint but would need more management in the first part of the race.
Plus, if it’s hotter than expected, the soft might degrade too quickly to make such a long stint feasible, but teams will have that data from those who start on the softest compound.
These one-stop strategies are particularly attractive given the high likelihood of a Safety Car based on previous races. A well-timed interruption for a driver yet to make a pit stop could gain them multiple positions, just as Charles Leclerc managed when starting on mediums last week in Austin.
options for the bottom half of the field
Teams who want to favor speed over longevity can use a two-stop strategy without two sets of mediums. The first part of the race will be started on soft tires, then switched to mediums for the middle part of the race.
Some management is needed here, but drivers should use their medium tires wisely; they should aim for around 30 laps in total, then come into the pits for softer rubber for the final part of the race when track conditions are at their most difficult and demanding.
The hard tire isn’t suitable for this stage because it gives too much of a disadvantage from the off compared to the soft compound and will be tough to manage on high fuel loads through this type of surface.’
Low tire temperatures combined with the lower levels of downforce due to the altitude is a recipe for sliding around, which is slow and damages the tires.
Wait, but what’s the weather doing?
The weather is tricky to call this weekend because of a trend seen throughout the event in Mexico City so far. It is warm when the sun is out, and track temperatures rise beyond 50C, but cloud cover has dropped significantly.
There has also been rain on Thursday and Friday afternoon, while a 60% risk of showers during qualifying never materialized. Instead, the session ran in sunlight, which kept temperatures high.
The forecast is for similar conditions on race day, with sunshine leading to warm temperatures around the race starts, but cloud cover is likely to build up and the threat of rain increasing during the race itself.
The overall threat of rain remains relatively low at 40%, but even a change in track temperatures can significantly impact how the tires behave in Mexico.
