John N
It’s high stakes at high altitude at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez – who’s favorite for pole, victory, the podium, and points in Mexico City? Could Sergio Perez become Mexico’s first home win on Sunday?
Let’s look at the form of teams and drivers ahead of the Grand Prix this weekend.
Vying for pole
Pole position has been too close to call in recent races, with Max Verstappen winning qualifying in Japan by 0.01s and Carlos Sainz taking his third pole of the season last time out at Austin. It looks like another tight battle between the Ferraris and Red Bulls in Mexico City.
It’s undeniable that Ferrari have had superior pace on Saturdays this season as the Scuderia have taken 12 pole positions this season – nine of those by Charles Leclerc, who took a new engine in the USA – so one would give them the favorites tag once again in Mexico City.
However, Red Bull will be doing their best to wrestle that tag away from its rivals. Sergio Perez also took a new engine and the resulting penalty in Austin, and he will be eager to start on pole in front of his home fans; teammate Max Verstappen might be kind enough to give him a tow down the circuit’s long straight too.
Although Mercedes took pole here last time, in 2021, they don’t seem to enjoy the same power Red Bull or Ferrari enjoyed. That power disparity will only be pronounced in Mexico City, where the higher altitude makes thinner air. That also means brake and engine cooling is far more crucial here – something that Red Bull seems to be right on top of.
The skies are another factor; there’s a small chance of rain throughout the weekend.
Pole positions in the last 5 races:
- 2021 – Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes)
- 2019 – Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
- 2018 – Daniel Ricciardo (Red Bull)
- 2017 – Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari)
- 2016 – Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes
In the mix for victory
Verstappen’s towering pace saw him dominate the race in Texas, where – even after an 11-second pit stop – the Dutchman easily overhauled the Ferrari of Charles Leclerc and the Mercedes of Lewis Hamilton for victory. Red Bull are favorites to take their ninth consecutive victory, something last achieved by Mercedes from 2018-19.
And if Verstappen takes his 14th win of 2022, he will set a new record for wins in a season. Ferrari has it all to do to stop Red Bull here. Their Racing Director Laurent Mekies conceded in Austin that Red Bull continue to enjoy a straight-line pace advantage over the Scuderia, which will come in handy for them in Mexico.
So a ninth-straight win for Red Bull is very much possible. Having accomplished almost everything they could this season – bar a record-breaking 14th win for Verstappen – perhaps Red Bull will be focusing on giving Perez his first home victory this season, especially as he currently sits just two points behind Leclerc in the battle for P2 in the drivers’ championship.
The Mexican driver hasn’t quite been on par in qualifying but, with victory in Singapore, he proved that he can turn on the pace on Sunday. With a new engine and no penalties expected in Mexico City, this could be Perez’s best chance yet for home glory.
Points potential
McLaren’s Norris has the longest running points-scoring streak outside the top three teams. The Briton scored P6 in the USA, where McLaren out-scored Alpine – whose two-time champion Fernando Alonso was demoted from the points with a post-race penalty.
Alpine and McLaren are still front-runners for points, perhaps the former is more likely to score than the latter, but Aston Martin looks much improved in the midfield fight. Sebastian Vettel put on a show in Texas, the four-time champion taking a brilliant P7, while Lance Stroll ran as high as third before colliding with Alonso – for which the Canadian will be demoted three places on the grid in Mexico City.
With a car frequently described as ‘slippery’, Williams might also hope to sneak into the points. Alex Albon’s hopes were somewhat curtailed by a five-second track limits penalty in Austin but P12 was a solid showing from the Thai driver.
AlphaTauri, who scored thanks to Yuki Tsunoda in the USA, will also be hoping that the high altitudes of Mexico suit their class-leading Red Bull power unit.
Points in the last five races:
- Mercedes – 143
- Red Bull – 135
- Ferrari – 127
- Aston Martin/Racing Point/Force India – 35
- Alpine/Renault – 15
- Williams – 14
- Alfa Romeo/Sauber – 12
- McLaren – 6
- Haas – 4
- AlphaTauri – 3
Podium outsiders
Lewis Hamilton crashed the party in the Lone Star State, with the seven-time champion finishing second to Verstappen while Sainz retired, and Perez and Leclerc had to overcome engine penalties. That’s not to say that the Mercedes driver didn’t put in a shift – but Hamilton himself admitted that it’s still “highly unlikely” that his team can match Red Bull on pace.
So, Mercedes are still the podium outsiders heading into Mexico, and with a long straight plus the aforementioned perils of high altitude holding everyone’s power units back, the Silver Arrows will need some fortune to challenge for the rostrum on Sunday.
In the hybrid era, only Valtteri Bottas has managed to land a podium in Mexico City for a team other than Red Bull, Ferrari or Mercedes, as the Finn took P3 here for Williams in 2015.
And this season, Lando Norris remains the only driver from any team bar the top three to score a podium.
