John N
With the drivers’ title decided, another is still on the line; it’s set to be a showdown between Ferrari and Red Bull in front of a packed house at Circuit of The Americas, a track that has been a strategic challenge in the past.
So here are some of the different options available to the teams on race day in America.
What’s the quickest strategy?
For the same reasons, it will be hard for teams to make one-stop strategies work. Given the high levels of degradation this weekend, it seems almost impossible for teams to target a two-stop strategy.
The two-stop strategy looks to be the frontrunner at this point, during a weekend when there has been less data than usual due to the tire test in FP2. But the other two practice sessions were held at a similar time to the race and provided representative conditions that showed the soft tyre too fragile to use in the first stint.
Starting on the medium is the preferred option, switching to the hard compound after an opening stint of between 14 and 19 laps. From there, the timing of the final pit stop can be more flexible, but the quickest strategy would involve returning to the medium any time after Lap 35, as it is a quicker tyre in terms of pace offered.
But just because it’s the quickest strategy doesn’t mean it’s available to all of the frontrunners, with Carlos Sainz, the Mercedes drivers, Lando Norris, and Valtteri Bottas only having one set of mediums for the race.
A different option for the top 10
For teams that are less confident about their tyre wear and degradation levels, another two-stop strategy can be considered. This involves starting on mediums and switching to hards by Lap 18.
The final stint takes place on the hard compound, which means a final pit stop window of Lap 32-38 before the run to the flag. This is the same strategy used by Max Verstappen last year when he beat Lewis Hamilton to victory at the Chinese Grand Prix.
He made his first stop as early as Lap 11 but held on in the closing stages. Most teams have this strategy available as they kept back two sets of hard tyres for race day, with only Aston Martin, Williams, and Yuki Tsunoda entering the Grand Prix with one set each.
It is possible that some teams may run the soft compound for the final part of a race, but it would require a more extended middle stint on hard tyres to make that work. Teams need to look at the hard compound because of overheating.
The track characteristics play a big role in tyre temperatures being a challenge because bumps lead to the car breaking traction and sliding more, increasing those temperatures. Although the circuit has addressed some bumps, its current generation of cars is stiffer than its predecessor and more susceptible to them.
That could also push some drivers towards three-stop strategies involving first stints on medium tyres followed by second stints on hard tyres and multiple options.
The most likely would be to return to mediums for a third stint and then have a sprint to the flag on softs, but it’s even possible that the final two stints could be on the soft compound.
Options for the bottom half of the field
His starting position can sometimes influence a driver’s strategy. In the case of this weekend’s race, the biggest gamble would be to start on the hard compound tyre. The reason it’s a gamble is because of the lap time delta between the compounds, with the medium estimated to be around a second quicker than the hard heading into the race.
Although that gap usually closes as tyre management comes into play, it’s still a big difference that could cost a driver positions on the opening lap. But once the medium starts to lose performance, the hard will come into its own.
And it offers greater flexibility regarding when you might need to pit for more fuel or tyres if you’re on your limit and run close behind someone else.
Even starting on the hard compound, the one-stop strategy isn’t expected to be realistic, as too much tyre management is required, and the pit lane loss time is only 20 seconds under green flag conditions – one of the lowest of the season – so multiple stops are more attractive.
Wait, but what’s the weather doing?
Unlike the last two race weekends, the teams can sleep more easily without stressing about the weather forecast. Heavy rain impacted both events in Singapore and Japan. Still, there is very little threat of any wet weather in Austin.
Instead, the challenge comes from the windy conditions seen throughout the weekend, particularly on Saturday. Gusts have been catching drivers out at certain times, making it hard to trust braking points and cornering speeds.
While that can induce big mistakes that lead to required strategy changes, a less pronounced impact is how the wind can make the cars slide around more. And as pointed out earlier, when the cars slide, the tyres start to overheat, making it challenging to keep the levels of degradation under control, resulting in more pit stops.
Even without the wind, the weather will still have an impact with a high 30C forecast. That will lead to higher track temperatures than were seen in FP2, qualifying that both took place in the late afternoon.
