John N
- Costly small errors
All teams and drivers have been getting used to the new track surface in Miami, but the grip has been an issue this weekend. The surface is rough, but as with any new circuit, it takes time for the grip level to build up as more laps are completed, and rubber goes down on the racing line.
At least it does where the rubber is going down on the racing line. Drivers noticed less grip off-line, so they didn’t want to move out of the way for too long during practice sessions.
While grip level has been increasing, there is still a clear difference off-line, and this means if a driver gets slightly off-line, they could lose a lot of performance while they clean up their tires again. Of course, bigger mistakes tend to end in the wall, too, as highlighted by Valtteri Bottas, Carlos Sainz, and Esteban Ocon at various stages so far this weekend.
- Ferrari under attack from row two
Charles and Carlos' first front-row lockout as team mates 🤜💥🤛#MiamiGP #F1 @ScuderiaFerrari pic.twitter.com/SkzNfmytFq
— Formula 1 (@F1) May 7, 2022
Ferrari has not had an all-Ferrari front row since Max Verstappen received a post-qualifying penalty at the Mexican Grand Prix three years ago, but that could change on Sunday.
The last time it happened was in Mexico three years ago, when Verstappen went fastest overall. Before that, it was in Italy at Spa, so it has been a while since the Tifosi could enjoy the sight of their two cars leading the field away when the lights go out on race day.
It could have been very different if Max hadn’t made a mistake on his final qualifying lap in Miami, but he still starts third. The pace he showed despite a tough Friday does bode well for a close race—and Ferrari knows it will be under attack from both Red Bulls behind him.
Playing the team game could be necessary as Carlos Sainz comes second with the ground to make up after a pair of retirements in his last two races, leaving him fifth overall in the drivers’ championship.”
Even with the perfect qualifying result, there’s a long way to go for Ferrari to convert it into a victory.
- A reunion of old teammates on row three
We’ve been used to seeing Valtteri Bottas and Lewis Hamilton starting alongside each other in the past, but you’d have been brave to bet on it being a regular occurrence this year. But for the second time in five races, they will share row three, with Bottas ahead of his former teammate on this occasion.
The Finn has been enjoying a fine season for Alfa Romeo so far and is just four points behind Hamilton in the drivers’ championship, and he arguably has had a faster car in race trim at most circuits.
So if Hamilton wants to help secure Mercedes another top-five finish (they’ve had one in every race so far this season despite their relative struggles compared to the top two teams), he’s going to need to find a way past the driver he enjoyed a good relationship with inside the same team over the past five years.
It’s a battle that will take on a completely different dynamic this time around compared to their races in the past. Still, for Mercedes, the more critical aspect will be the car’s overall performance after some encouraging signs to start the weekend, having brought some new components to Miami.
Those upgrades impact the race pace and might be crucial to who comes out on top and George Russell’s chances of making progress from P12 on the grid. Russell – who has also been in the top five at every race – was reasonably confident after Friday but then said he had no confidence in the car in qualifying to drop out in Q2 – so which Russell will we get in the race?
- AlphaTauri’s top ten advantage
It has been a slightly tough start to the season for AlphaTauri, with flashes of pace but no consistent results to show for it. The team has scored in each of the opening four races, with Yuki Tsunoda’s seventh place in Imola the best. But after scraping through Q1, they managed to get both drivers into Q3 for the first time this year, marking a significant turnaround from the last race when they were eliminated in the first part of qualifying.
As Tsunoda’s result in Italy attests, the car can be competitive on a Sunday. Still, AlphaTauri hasn’t had the clean races to exploit that until now, and Miami is giving them a significant chance of doing so. Pierre Gasly starts from seventh and Tsunoda ninth, with Lando Norris and Lance Stroll their biggest competition.
An incident-free start will be crucial to their hopes, with the first sector looking particularly tricky to negotiate cleanly on the opening lap. But AlphaTauri is the only team other than Ferrari and Red Bull to have both cars in the top ten, with the likes of Mercedes, Alfa Romeo, and McLaren all-seeing one of their two drivers have tough qualifying sessions.
- Ocon’s comeback on the cards
Alpine has looked fast on numerous occasions this year, and while Fernando Alonso just missed out on the spot in Q3, Esteban Ocon wasn’t even participating in qualifying after crashing in FP3. The Frenchman cracked his chassis when going off at Turn 14, and the team was unable to change the chassis in time, meaning he would start from either the back of the grid or the pit lane.
All is not lost for Ocon, though: the likelihood of Safety Cars and on-track incidents means there could be chances for the field to be bunched up, while the three DRS zones are expected to ensure overtaking is possible for faster cars.
The question for Ocon will be just how quick he is, having missed out on crucial track time on a new circuit, but with the likes of Williams and Haas appearing to be struggling, expect to see the Alpine driver making moves early on and potentially putting himself in contention for points.
