What To Watch For in the Monaco Grand Prix

• Leclerc’s second chance at home glory

Charles Leclerc has a unique record in his home race: he’s been on pole here twice, once in Formula 2 and last year in Formula 1.

But both times, he didn’t score a point—last year was perhaps the most heartbreaking situation for Leclerc, who had taken pole position but crashed on his final attempt in qualifying.

A mechanical issue only surfaced on his way to the grid on race day itself, ensuring he didn’t get to line up on pole for Ferrari. So far, Monaco 2022 has gone exceptionally smoothly for Leclerc; with Max Verstappen down in fourth place, it’s all set up for Leclerc to regain the championship lead with an emotional home victory.

But despite starting in the best possible position, Leclerc will have the weight of expectation and history to contend with—which means this is not yet a done deal.

• Potential issues for Perez and Sainz

Verstappen only took the lead in the drivers’ championship for the first time this year in Barcelona, when he won, and Leclerc retired. But he’s got his work cut out to keep that position after a tranquil qualifying session.

Very few drivers finished their final laps, and Verstappen was improving, but even before Sergio Perez crashed, the Mexican had looked the quicker Red Bull throughout qualifying.

If there is no drama at the start, Verstappen will need to make some moves on track – if possible – or be helped by a strategy to get onto the podium.

But Perez’s crash could be the catalyst for opportunities for Verstappen, as the rear end was quite heavily damaged when Perez spun at Portier.

It remains to be seen what Red Bull needs to repair and replace under parc ferme regulations, but there could be a pit lane start for any change in specification of parts.

And Carlos Sainz could also end up in a similar position after he spun and made contact with Perez trying to avoid the incident that had just unfolded in front of him.

The touch was a relatively light one, but after Leclerc’s reliability concerns surfaced on the way to the grid a year ago, both Red Bull and Ferrari probably won’t breathe out fully until both cars are running cleanly deep into the race.

• The Battle Of The Brits

The third row will be a great place to watch two of the young British talent. Lando Norris beat George Russell to the best of the rest behind Ferrari and Red Bull drivers in qualifying.

The pair raced for the Formula 2 title back in 2018 but have been apart since then because Norris had a more competitive car at McLaren than Russell -who won that title- was afforded at Williams.

But Russell has been in sublime form this year since stepping up to Mercedes and has finished on the podium in all of the seven races this season. To keep that run going, he will have to find his way past Norris, with the start perhaps his best opportunity.

It certainly won’t be an easy task, as Norris has performed well in Monaco previously and was on the podium here last year. Still, it would be great to see two of the new generation fighting it out near the front again after Verstappen and Russell’s thrilling battle in Barcelona last weekend.

• Rain clouds

Monaco is uniquely located on the Mediterranean coast, with the Principality rising significantly from the sea as it climbs up the rock face.

It’s not uncommon to see clouds forming at the top of the hill overlooking Monaco and not lead to any rain, but the forecast for Sunday is very different.

From a long way out, it looked like there could be a threat of rain on race day, and that threat has only increased the closer we have got to the main event. The latest FIA forecast suggests it will be “unsettled all day long,” with a fair chance of thundery showers during the race itself.

As impressive as the qualifying spectacle is, one criticism of Monaco tends to be the lack of opportunities for overtaking during a race, given the tight nature of the track.

But the rain would change all of that, opening up many more chances to make a move and increasing the risk of a costly error from a driver. It also tends to lead to more challenging strategies if the track dries out (or goes from dry to wet), providing the potential for changes in position.

• Safety Timing

In the last five races, three have seen Safety Car interventions. Pit stops are generally crucial to the outcome of a race, but the timing of safety car periods can be important too.

If you’re running in P1 and someone’s in P3, they might get lucky with timing and take advantage of an early safety car period to move up into second place.

Watch out for incidents after pit stops begin, as drivers will want to get every single position they can if there’s a chance of a race-changing safety car.

It’s also worth remembering that Pierre Gasly had the opposite kind of fortune to his teammate Yuki Tsunoda in qualifying: Gasly looked strong all weekend but was caught out by his teammate hitting the wall in Q1 and bringing out a red flag.