by John N November 17, 2022, 9:04 pm inUncategorized

FORM GUIDE AHEAD OF THE ABU DHABI GRAND PRIX

It’s the final round of the 2022 Formula 1 season, with Red Bull holding both titles – and the cards – going into the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. Let’s look at who might be in for a good weekend at the Yas Marina Circuit.

The battle for P2…@SChecoPerez 🆚 @Charles_Leclerc #AbuDhabiGP #F1 pic.twitter.com/o9QVsGOIxt

— Formula 1 (@F1) November 17, 2022

Vying for pole

Kevin Magnussen surprised everyone last time in Brazil with a well-timed and well-executed lap in Q3 to claim his and the team’s first Formula 1 pole position. Abu Dhabi doesn’t generally deliver the same sort of surprises.

Max Verstappen has taken two poles here, Lewis Hamilton has taken two, and Valtteri Bottas has taken one in the last five years. In fact, since the first Abu Dhabi Grand Prix in 2009, only McLaren and Red Bull have taken pole position at this circuit – with six different drivers.

Red Bull has been on form recently – but Ferrari have still won more qualifying sessions than any other team this season, so they should be neck-and-neck favorites with the team in blue on Saturday in Abu Dhabi.

Mercedes might have been quick in Brazil, but their only pole position of the season came at a low-speed track, and it’s not clear if their W13 car will suit Yas Marina’s layout.

Pole positions in the last five years:

2021 – Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
2020 – Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
2019 – Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2018 – Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2017 – Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes)

In the mix for victory

Last year’s Abu Dhabi Grand Prix was a thrilling battle between Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton, but it looks like Red Bull has the advantage over Mercedes this season.

Qualifying is crucial at Yas Marina Circuit; only once has this race been won from outside the front row, when Kimi Raikkonen took victory from P4 on the grid in 2012. In the last six Grands Prix here, the pole-sitter has gone on to win.

This weekend, Red Bull can match Mercedes’ tally of six wins at Yas Marina. It seems they are favorites to do so, with the reigning constructors’ champions winning nine consecutive Grands Prix until last weekend in Sao Paulo when Mercedes took a shocking one-two.

Ferrari should be Red Bull’s closest challenger, but only if Mercedes haven’t improved their car performance over the rest of this season.

Wins in the last five years:

2021 – Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
2020 – Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
2019 – Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2018 – Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2017 – Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes)

Podium outsiders

Formula 1 has seen many twists and turns this season. Mercedes have been dominant in the last few years, but their performance in Brazil means they can no longer be called “outsiders” for the podium.

Lewis Hamilton has nine stages this season – as many as Carlos Sainz – while Russell is just one below that tally. Equal in points for second in the standings, Charles Leclerc and Sergio Perez have ten podiums apiece.

Any of the drivers from the top three teams have a realistic chance of hitting the rostrum on Sunday, and the true outsider is McLaren’s, Lando Norris. He remains the only driver outside Red Bull, Ferrari, and Mercedes to have scored a podium this season.

This being a high-speed circuit, perhaps Ferrari would expect to have an advantage over Mercedes – but it remains to be seen how well Mercedes will perform at a trace on which they have dominated since 2014.

Podiums in the last five years:

Mercedes – 7
Ferrari – 4
Red Bull – 4

Points potential

The midfield battle should be open at this weekend’s Grand Prix, as every team has scored at least two points in the last five Grands Prix. Alpine and McLaren should be considered shoo-ins for points, with the former scoring in all but three rounds this season and the latter scoring in all but four.

Lando Norris, Fernando Alonso, and Esteban Ocon will all be gunning for the top 10, with outgoing McLaren racer Daniel Ricciardo carrying a three-place grid penalty from Brazil.

Alfa Romeo have returned to the points in recent races, but Aston Martin have scored more consistently – with Sebastian Vettel looking to bow out on a high as his glittering career ends. Add in AlphaTauri, and you have three teams in contention to round out the top 10.

As for Haas, they may struggle to score here; they last did so in 2018 while only scoring once last year. Williams last scored here in 2017, and although their car is slippery in a straight line, they might also struggle this season finale.

Points in the last five years: