John N
It’s the year’s final race, and teams are fine-tuning their machines for qualifying and the Grand Prix at Abu Dhabi’s Yas Marina Circuit. Who’s looking strong for a podium finish?
1. Red Bull is the team to beat
After their defeat in Brazil, Red Bull returned to form in Abu Dhabi. Their RB18 car performed well at the Yas Marina circuit, with Max Verstappen driving it to victory in just one session.
He had regained his confidence quickly, as he felt comfortable driving the car on the soft tires (when it was light) and the mediums (when it was heavy). The data showed that Red Bull was fastest in qualifying trim by 0.16 seconds over Ferrari, and this advantage extended to 0.23 seconds when the team’s race performance was evaluated.
The team’s lap times on medium tires were favorable compared to their main competitors, as degradation rates at this race were higher than expected. This puts them in good shape for Sunday evening, when they are expected to win their second consecutive F1 championship title.
2. Mercedes in the mix to continue the upward trajectory
After Friday’s practice, Mercedes’ chief trackside engineer Andrew Shovlin said that Mercedes’ most significant concern is degradation.
The team secured its first one-two in two years at the last race in Brazil, but while Lewis Hamilton felt they were closer than they have been to Red Bull in most races this year, they were still a little off the pace in pure performance.
Hamilton made some changes between FP1 and FP2 which didn’t quite work, so he accepted that they have work to do overnight. In qualifying trim, the silver cars appear to be around a quarter of a second off the pace, extending by a tenth in race trim.
That’s among the most competitive they’ve been all season, which means they could play a big part in the outcome of this weekend.
3. Ferrari in pole contention but lacks race pace
After a difficult run at altitude in Mexico and Brazil, Ferrari looked in better shape after Friday’s running.
Their one-lap performance puts them in contention for pole position, but their medium-shod efforts on the long runs looked difficult. With degradation high, the harder compounds will likely be required for what could well be a two-stop race.
That could be a headache for Ferrari, who have struggled managing tires on race day this year. Overall, they are still the second-fastest team on both metrics, meaning a podium with at least one car will be the minimum target.
4. Alfa Romeo could be the dark horse
Alfa Romeo has shown impressive form as this season comes to a close, the upgrades around the front wing and floor delivering lap time that is putting them in prime position to fend off Aston Martin to take P6 in the constructors’ championship.
They were fourth overall in qualifying pace, 0.06s clear of Alpine and 0.06s adrift of fourth-placed Alpine in the race simulations, suggesting not only are they in the mix to make Q3 but points with one car at least a genuine possibility.
Valtteri Bottas and Zhou Guanyu reported that the car balance felt good from the first laps, which meant they could focus on fine-tuning rather than making wholesale changes.
It was an awe-inspiring performance from Zhou, who missed FP1 because Robert Kubica ran the car and thus had just one hour to get to grips with the track. His pace, particularly in qualifying trim, was very encouraging.
5. Alpine winning the fight for P4
Alpine heads to Abu Dhabi with a comfortable lead over McLaren in their quest for P4 in the constructors’ championship.
The team showed good speed on Friday and was well-positioned to finish the season strong. Esteban Ocon said the team made good improvements from FP1 to FP2 and gained a good understanding of the soft and medium tires.
On low fuel, they were fifth fastest, 0.03s clear of McLaren, while in race trim, they are lapping around the same as their rivals. It wasn’t such a smooth day for McLaren, with Daniel Ricciardo losing track time with a small oil leak while Lando Norris had to catch up after loaning his car to Pato O’Ward in FP1.
It will be an uphill battle if they are to overturn such a significant deficit, but at least they are showing a much better pace than they did in Brazil.
